Lex Anteinternet: Some Grim Predications

Lex Anteinternet: Some Grim Predications: 

Some Grim Predications

“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

I still think that Vance will be President within 18 months of the inauguration.  Trump's clearly a demented, unhinged, fool who always had a defective narcissistic personality made worse by his declining mental status.  It's really impossible to ignore at this point, although the damage he does will be lasting.  Vance can't act immediately, as Trump put in sycophants and lackeys in his cabinet, but it's increasingly clear to non Maga Republicans that Trump's unhinged.  

Indeed, Vance acting quicker than 18 months, maybe even with in the first six months, is becoming an increasing likelihood. The nation will breath a sigh of relief no matter what Vance is like, as he isn't Trump, and by that time all the dirty work of firing government employees will have been done.

But I also think I can, at this point, see some other things happening with a high degree of probability, all of which depend to some degree on what Vance ultimately does, that will result from his administration, or occur during it. Some will surprise his supporters.  Here's what I think we're going to see, which the assumption being we're within the 18 month window, or perhaps that I'm wrong on that.  Indeed, if I'm wrong, the likelihood of these predictions goes up.

Note that predicting these events isn't the same as cheering them on, or hoping for them, or even remotely wishing for them. What I hope and pray is that God deliver the United States and grant to it what is his will.  I don't wish harm or disaster on anyone.  I think, at the end of the day, that Donald Trump is a demented old fool who deserves pity,  the nation that has chosen him as the Chief Executive is suffering from a sort of foolish dementia itself, and that all the proof that ever needs to be given on why people shouldn't be allowed to get massively rich has been given.

70% Chance

How solitary sits the city, 

once filled with people.

She who was great among the nations

is now like a widow.

Once a princess among the provinces,

now a toiling slave.

 Lamentations.

I'd give the following about a 70% chance of occurring.

Trump's going to defy the courts

Napoleon, who claimed he was acting to save the country and went on to get a lot of people killed.  Don quoted him just the other day in what is likely a prelude to ignoring the courts.  Napoleon ended up in exile and was likely murdered by poisoning.

This is pretty obvious and will happen soon.

The thing is, this won't go well, and will prove to be one of those things he'll move away from quickly.  Courts have a lot more power than they did in times past and they really aren't afraid of Trump.  Once Federal Marshall start slapping people in prison or impounding assets, things will change.

What if Trump Just Ignores the Courts?

The Jury.

The entire time I've been a lawyer. . . well, no, well before that, I've been told that one of the "greatest" things about "the world's greatest judicial system" is that it uses juries.

Most legal systems do not, and those that do, have tended to pick it up from the English Common Law system, often through American influence.  Save for Louisiana, we use the English system, and the English system has long used juries.  

The system has evolved over time.  Originally it was an effort to gather those from the area where an event occured, and was truly a jury of peers. The danger was that they actually knew you, and therefore may be inclined to judge your guilt or innocence based on that, which was part of why it was conceived of as a good system. Over time, while it was still supposed to be a jury of your peers, they were picked, through the voir dire process, for their fairness.

I'm not about to say that juries always get everything right. They don't.  But lawyers are taught to respect the process and the juries, and for good reason.  Frankly, more often than not, juries are right.  Not always, but holding them in contempt is wrong.

The jury that found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felonies this past week in Manhattan was made up seven men and five women, and included two attorneys, a software engineer, an e-commerce sales professional, a security engineer, a teacher, a speech therapist, an investment banker and a retired wealth manager.   That is a highly educated jury, and frankly that probably truly is a jury of Trump's peers.  Leaving two lawyers on the jury is bizarre, as lawyers only rarely make a jury panel, although I've known one who did.  I've been called for jury duty once and did not get picked, as I didn't expect to be.  Having two lawyers on the panel is phenomenal.

It'd be interesting to know how that occured.  Trump's defense team may have thought that the lawyers would regard the charges as strained in regard to election interference, which a lot of legal analysts did.  They may have, instead, helped the jury wade through the piles of stuff they had and arrive at the conclusion which they did.

Anyway you look at it, they arrived at the opinion they arrived at, and that needs to be respected.

Which Wyoming's elected officials are not.

The jury has been slammed by all of our Congressional delegation, two of whom are lawyers, the Governor and the Secretary of State.

It's tragic.

Wyoming makes frequent recourse to the courts as a state, and now it's attacking the judicial system.  There's utterly nothing whatsoever to question the nature of this jury on.  It appears to have been well qualified for its role.  There's no reason to suspect that New York's legal system is deficient in any way.

It's inexcusable to attack the jury.

Blog Mirror: Supreme Court likely to discard Chevron

Supreme Court likely to discard Chevron

Which is huge legal news.

The court strongly hinted it might do this in one of its decisions last year.  Now it appears it is going to do it.

Justice O’Connor to lie in repose at court Dec. 18

Justice O’Connor to lie in repose at court Dec. 18: Retired Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, who died last week at the age of 93, will lie in repose at the Supreme Court on Dec. 18, the court’s public information office announced on Tuesday. Members of the public will be able to pay their respects that day from 10:30 a.m. until 8 p.m. Two private serv